The 5 Worst Predictions for 2015

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Around this time last year, here were some of the common predictions for 2014: Interest rates would rise (in reality, they fell). Oil prices would surpass $100 per barrel and stay there (latest price: around $54). Apple’s iWatch would be the killer product of the year (it’s not out yet). And the stock market rally would stall (stocks are likely to end the year up a frothy 13% or so).

Meanwhile, virtually nobody predicted the rise of the Islamic State, the deadly toll of Ebola, the worst year for aviation safety in decades or the remarkable 46% drop in oil prices.

Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, of course, but that doesn’t stop self-appointed seers from doing it anyway--and many others from wagering real money on trends that may or may not materialize. So I reviewed dozens of predictions for the next 12 months and winnowed them down to a few commonly repeated one that are pat, naïve or simply wishful thinking. Here are my picks for the worst predictions for 2015:

It will be a breakthrough year for wearable technology. The iWatch should finally make its debut, with dozens of cheaper smart watches and other wearable gizmos already on the market. Just because Apple (AAPL) rolls out a wearable device, however, doesn’t mean the idea is a winner. Sure, there will be some takers who really need to strap a glorified iPhone to their wrist. But the usefulness of another costly device that’s basically an extension of your phone still isn’t obvious. Google (GOOGL) Glass was supposed to be a breakthrough product by now, but the few trons who wear it have failed to incite the mass-market face-computing craze true believers still think is coming. Okay, so a wearable computer will seem more natural on your wrist than on your face. Sure.

The Internet of Things will begin to dominate. There probably will come a time when digital devices communicating with each other will allow homes, cars, refrigerators and many other products to operate like a symphony of smart living because they know when and where we need to use them. But one big problem stands in the way: hackers. Connecting different elements of your home and other products you use to the Internet—a prerequisite of connected living—creates a big new security vulnerability most consumers haven’t begun to grapple with. Few device manufacturers have, either. Given how much trouble huge corporations like Sony (SNE), Apple, Home Depot (HD), Staples (SPLS), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and Target (TGT) have had with hackers, how are ordinary people supposed to contend with them? Memo to Silicon Valley: hackers pose the biggest threat to the digital economy since its invention. Please fix.

Gasoline prices will be [?]. They might drift below $2 per gallon, or rocket up to $4. Nobody knows! But forecasters still have to guess. The smartest way for consumers and investors to cope with volatile energy prices is to enjoy the windfall when they're unexpectedly low, but expect oil and gas to return to higher trendlines over time. If you overestimate future energy costs, it just means more of a windfall down the road.

Corporations will take on governmental roles. Since Washington, Brussels and other governing capitals can’t get anything done, the thinking goes, corporations that know how to solve problems will begin to get involved in civic matters such as fixing roads, funding schools and managing public health care. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. Corporations exist for one explicit purpose—to earn money—and there’s nothing wrong with that. Corporations are also adept at gaming the political system for their own advantage, through customized tax breaks, regulatory rollbacks and any other favors they can beg or buy from politicians. Purchasing the naming rights to every stadium in America seems like enough civic involvement for big business. If government doesn’t work, we should fix government through means that exist for that purpose (uh, elections) instead of seeking alternatives likely to be worse.

The stock market will be sanguine in 2015. With the economy stronger than it's been in years, consensus forecasts call for a gain of 10% or so for the S&P 500 by the end of 2015. Of course it could happen, with the long bull market that’s risen about 200% since 2009 adding a few more points to its impressive tally. But the end of the rally has to come at some point and there are plenty of things that could trigger it in 2015: severe knock-on effects from the plunge in oil prices, the beginning of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a full-blown economic crisis in Russia or something nobody is contemplating right now. It’s true such risks have been more or less a constant for the last five years, with the markets shrugging them off. But that has bred complacency and drawn a lot of late money into stocks. It can’t last forever.

There are also some thoughtful predictions for 2015 that bring fresh ideas to this annual, year-end festival of groupthink: General Motors will wow consumers with amazing new products and features, after a dreadful year dominated by shameful safety scandals. Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) will become big players in the health care business. Russian-style nationalism will be a resurgent geopolitical problem. And 2015 will be the year you, the typical consumer, get seriously hacked.

There’s one other prediction that’s the easiest to make of all. Something unforeseen, and absent from every prediction list, will end up being the biggest story of 2015. Just as it is every year.

Rick Newman’s latest book is Rebounders: How Winners Pivot From Setback To Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.

[readon1 url="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-4-worst-predictions-for-2015-170444491.html"]Source:finance.yahoo.com[/readon1]

How to Find a New Job Abroad

work overseas classified ad careers 300x166Finding a job in the United States is tough enough, but what about landing your dream job in a new country? How to find a new job abroad is a question we get every day from aspiring expats just like you, so we went looking for expert answers.

Fortunately, we were able to track down a global expert on international careers in Singapore. Megan Fitzgerald is a long-time expat and international career coach. Her company, Career By Choice, helps expats accelerate their careers abroad.

“Finding a job abroad is much more challenging than finding a job in your homeland,” Fitzgerald said. “I think a lot of people think getting a job abroad is like getting a job at home, but there is just so much more research that has to go into it in terms of understanding market needs, visa requirements, language skills demands and other factors.”

Fitzgerald believes that figuring out why you want to go abroad is the first step you should take. “For some people it is quality of life. They really do want to live in another culture and experience something different. For others, it is about career advancement. They want global experience because they believe it is going to help them leapfrog through positions to advance their careers. For some it is a learning experience, they want to learn a new language. And some just want to earn a lot of money for a couple of years. You should base your planning objectives first and foremost on why you want to move abroad.”

Having a savings plan also is a good idea . “You want to create a little cushion for yourself so you will have money for the unexpected expenses that may occur, or if something happens and you have to get yourself back home,” she said. “People often run into trouble because expatriation is an expensive process and they stretch their finances too thin.”

Fitzgerald also recommended landing a job before landing in your new country. “I always say get the job first because when you go there, you will have just a short period of time. Tourist visas do not provide the amount of time necessary to land a proper job, at least one that is in your area of interest or one that is going to provide a livable wage or a wage that is going to support the lifestyle that you are looking for.”

One of the job trends Fitzgerald noted is increasing opportunities for younger people because they are seen as less pricey, more mobile and lower risk. “A lot of younger people understand the value of the international experience, so they are willing to go to places that someone with a family may not be willing to go, and take on challenges that might be a little more on the risky side,” Fitzgerald explained.

Whether you are younger or a bit older, many of the same job qualifications that exist in your home country also exist abroad. Fitzgerald pointed out that qualities like strong verbal and written communication skills, trustworthiness, resilience, flexibility and the ability to adjust and adapt are what employers look for, no matter where you are.

The job hunt abroad is not without its challenges, though. Expats may face difficulties if they are not mentally prepared for how much culture can impact the process.

“Do not assume that the way the world operates where you are is the same elsewhere,” Fitzgerald said. “That is where a lot of people run into trouble, whether it is how they access opportunities, how they apply for a job, how they build relationships and network, how they interview and how they negotiate salary. All these things can be very, very impacted by the culture and location.”

“Insensitivity to culture and not understanding how the target culture engages are barriers that a lot of people just do not think about enough,” Fitzgerald said. “It is sort of the ‘Achilles heel’ for a lot of people. You need to keep an open mind and be receptive to learning how things are done in the country.”

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Boardwalk Project For San Blas Announced

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  • The project will incur an investment of 100 million Mexican pesos and begin in 2015 with a tentative end date of 2016, seeking to trigger the tourism development of the Historic Port of San Blas in the Riviera Nayarit.

Via a press release, the Director of the Maritime and Port Authority, Guillermo Ruiz de Teresa, announced plans for the construction of a boardwalk (malecón) in San Blas, Riviera Nayarit. This will facilitate the development of nautical tourism and both recreational and sports activities and will spur economic growth.

He stated the work would commence next year and conclude in early 2016; it will incur an approximate investment of 100 million Mexican pesos.

Ruiz de Teresa also added the project includes a boardwalk and complementary structures, including four docks, a loading ramp and several sports installations such as a beach volleyball court and play areas.

The boardwalk will be located on the seafront extending from the Secretariat of the Navy (Semar) to the Fueling Dock along one side of the Fonatur building, which houses the offices of Mexico’s national trust for the promotion of tourism.


According to the Director of the Maritime and Port Authority, the boardwalk will be 300 meters long, 850 of which will be set aside for an 8-meter wide avenue, with 450 meters reserved as a pedestrian walkway.

 

Mexico Withdraws $3.4 Billion From Pemex as Oil Revenue Shrinks

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Mexico’s Finance Ministry took out 50 billion pesos ($3.4 billion) from the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, according to a statement sent to the Mexican Stock Exchange.

The payment this month was meant to “make management of public-sector finances more efficient,” according to the filing from the oil company, known as Pemex. The withdrawal marks a departure from the government’s usual methods of obtaining revenue from Pemex, which include taxes and royalties.

Pemex typically provides about a third of the federal budget, and its contributions dropped this year as the oil company faced production declines and falling crude prices. During the first 11 months of 2014, taxes paid by Mexico City- based Pemex declined by about 260 billion pesos, or 22 percent, from the same period of 2013, according to records.

The withdrawal shows “a near addiction to Pemex’s revenue by the ministry,” Fluvio Ruiz, a board member of the oil company’s petrochemical unit, said in a phone interview. He said he had no prior knowledge of the disclosure through his role at the company.

Pemex and Finance Ministry press officials declined to comment.

[readon1 url="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-27/mexico-withdraws-3-4-billion-from-pemex-as-oil-revenue-shrinks.html"]Source:www.bloomberg.com[/readon1]

The World’s Auto Parts Industry is on The move — to Mexico!

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The past year has seen new automotive assembly plants begin production — Nissan, Mazda and Honda, plus the announcements of three new ones — Audi, BMW and Mercedes Benz.

Following close behind are those firms that play a supporting role in auto manufacturing, the makers of the parts that the big automakers need.

Among them is TE Connectivity, which will move its plant from Shakopee, Minnesota, to Sonora, bringing 144 jobs and a US $20-million investment.

Another is Delphi with a new factory in Chihuahua: 327 jobs and $109 million coming out of Michigan

In March, Advanced Motors transferred some production from Texas to Monterrey, moving 60% of its employees. A division of the Japanese firm Nidec, the company makes electric motors.

Another Japanese company is investing some 360 million pesos, or US $25 million, in a plant in San Luís Potosí. JTEKT will move some of its steering systems production from Japan to the new factory.

In addition to being close to the firms that buy their products, auto parts makers are also benefiting from the same advantages that the car makers enjoy in Mexico: location, free trade agreements and quality labor at low cost.

Automotive production is expected to reach over 3.3 million units this year, surpassing 3 million for the first time, and climb to a little more than 3.6 million in 2015.

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[readon1 url="http://mexiconewsdaily.com"]Source:mexiconewsdaily.com[/readon1]

Southwest Extending Flight Schedule at JWA

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Southwest Airlines has extended its flight schedule for travel through Aug. 7, including adding daily service between Orange County's John Wayne Airport and Austin, Texas, beginning June 28.

Fares for once-daily nonstop flights between Orange County and Austin will start at $119 one way.

Nonstop once-daily service between Orange County and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, will begin June 7 with fares as low as $148 each way.

Southwest's nonstop service between John Wayne Airport and San Jose del Cabo/Los Cabos, Mexico, will increase with a second seasonal daily round trip between April 8 and Aug. 7.

The service is subject to approval from government agencies. Customers can book flights and make travel plans at http://www.Southwest.com.

Big Year For Puerto Vallarta

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Puerto Vallarta, one of Mexico's leading resort destinations, reports 2014 was one of its best years for the travel and tourism industry with ever growing numbers of visitors, new hotels, more flights and an increase in cruise ship arrivals.

The popular seaside resort was ranked No. 2 in the most popular destinations in Mexico in the 2014 edition of TripAdvisors Travellers Choice, an award based on the opinion of travellers worldwide.

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Azimut Benetti Names Dealer in Mexico

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Azimut Yachts Mexico was named the exclusive Azimut Yachts dealer for the region.

Azimut Yachts Mexico has a network of sales and service outlets in Mexico City, Cancun, Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta.

“The Mexican market is of great importance for the Azimut Benetti Group,” the company said in a statement. “Since September 2014, when the Mexican office opened, four units have already been sold, including the brand-new Azimut Grande 112.”

The new Azimut Yachts Mexico headquarters will be inaugurated in Mexico City in February.

Travel 2014: The Top Mexico and Travel Agent Stories of the Year

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For Mexico tourism, 2014 was a year of highs and lows. On a high note, stellar tourism numbers point to the destination’s recovery from the recession and lingering concerns about safety. On a low note, Los Cabos was devastated by the wrath of Hurricane Odile. That story, too, though, has a happy ending, with the destination making a remarkably quick recovery.

It was also a pretty good year for ASTA and travel agents. The Society made significant strides in a number of areas, including membership boosts, lobbying efforts and campaigns promoting the value of agents. On another note, anecdotal agent reports indicated that the unforgiving winter resulted in extremely strong bookings – the likes of which some agents said they have never seen before

Los Cabos Rebuilds in the Aftermath of Hurricane Odile

Just a little more than three months ago, Hurricane Odile made landfall in Cabo San Lucas, devastating the destination.

The Sept. 15 category 3 storm, with sustained winds of 115 miles an hour, pummeled hotels, the airport and local tourist attraction.

In record time, however, the destination dusted itself off and quickly began the process of rebuilding its tourism infrastructure. Incredibly, by the end of this month, tourism officials say 10,000 of the destination’s 14,000 room are expected to be open.

Air service, meanwhile, has returned at a steady clip, with the Los Cabos International Airport expected to be 100 percent operational by the end of the month. Also, nearly all of the restaurants and attractions are open, as are virtually all of the destination’s golf courses.

Now, tourism officials are working to get the word out that the destination is, for all intents and purposes, back in business with the #unstoppable campaign, whose hashtag is being used to document Los Cabos’ return to normalcy. “It’s inspiring, but that’s what good marketing is for,” wrote TravelPulse senior editor Barry Kaufman in a first-hand report from the destination last month. “To inspire. To welcome guests back and assure them that Los Cabos is still an amazing, exciting destination.”

Mexico Tourism Continues on Upward Swing

If this year’s stellar tourism numbers are any indicator, it appears that Mexico has, for the most part, recovered from the recession and overcome lingering perceptions regarding the destination’s safety.

As 2014 draws to a close, Puerto Vallarta is reporting one of its best years on record as the number of flights into the destination continues to rise. Flight frequencies were up 23.87 percent in October over the same month in 2013, and rose 22.6 percent in October compared to September’s figures.

Puerto Vallarta is also experiencing a significant rise in hotel occupancies. During the first half of the year, occupancies increased by 7.9 percent, and tourism officials say they expect to close the year up 13.7 percent over 2013.

For its part, tourism officials from neighboring Riviera Nayarit say the destination is also experiencing a strong year, and several new projects are expected to accelerate business even further.

By next summer, construction will be completed on the new Hard Rock Hotel Vallarta International Convention Center, the largest such facility ever built in Riviera Nayarit.

Costacapomo, a new Mexico National Trust for Tourism Promotion (Fonatur), project currently under development will include more than 3,000 hotel rooms, a 18-hole golf course and two beach clubs. The development goes hand in hand with a new Jala-Compostela-Las Varas-Bahía de Banderas highway, which is slated to open next year.

Following a 16.4 percent jump in arrivals this summer, thanks to more nonstop and connecting flights than ever before, Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo is gearing up for what it hopes will be one of its strongest winter seasons ever.

Westjet launched its winter season with thrice-weekly service out of Calgary, while Sunwing Airlines added flights from Winnipeg, Kelowna and Regina-Saskatoon. On Dec. 20, Delta Air Lines will debut new service to the destination from Los Angeles, with five departures a week.

Officials from the Cancun Convention & Visitors say they expect to exceed 2013 numbers this year, reporting a 16.7 percent increase in international visitors in the first eight months of 2014 for a total of 4.6 million international visitors compared to 4.1 million during the same period last year. The destination has also welcomed a host of new and rebranded hotels this year, which has likely played a role in boosting tourism numbers.

ASTA Woos Agency Groups, Bolstering Membership

This year, ASTA made significant strides in in its efforts to beef up its membership ranks, with a number of agency groups either voting to make membership in the Society mandatory or strongly urging their members to join.

The announcements are a clear indicator that travel advisors are recognizing the association’s efforts as essential to the viability and success of the travel agency segment going forward.

In October, Travel Leaders’ Franchise Advisory Board voted unanimously to make ASTA membership mandatory for all Travel Leaders franchisees, following similar mandates made by Signature Travel Network, MAST and the American Marketing Group, parent of consortiums Travelsavers and NEST.

Travel Leaders franchisees will be required to join ASTA within the next two years, and Travel Leaders Franchise Group will maintain its ASTA premium membership.
Signature Travel Network will now require ASTA membership in main offices. MAST will subsidize membership dues for its agency members; and the American Marketing Group, parent of consortiums Travelsavers and NEST, rejoined ASTA, encouraging their agency members to do the same.

ASTA Lobbying Efforts, Agent Promotional Campaigns, Pick Up Steam

In the last year alone, ASTA has been at the forefront of lobbying efforts against s regulations involving mandatory hazardous waste warnings for clients by agents, new distribution capability, full fare and price disclosure, travel insurance regulation, ancillary fees, “transparent” airfares, and state sales and hotel taxes.

ASTA claims to have saved the travel agency business $180 million in taxes in just the last year due to its lobbying efforts to counter new tax proposals—and that’s just scratching the surface of government and state regulations that ASTA must deal with on an annual basis.

In tandem with these efforts, ASTA also made strides in promoting the value of agents to consumers this year. For starters, the Society launched a Google marketing campaign promoting the value of travel agents, which it said has garnered more than 3.5 million impressions in the marketplace.

ASTA has also developed a series of PBS infomercials about agents that have run in 150 markets in the U.S. The association has also succeeded in increasing the traffic to its consumer Web site, TravelSense.org, which features profiles of its member agents, doubling the number of agent referrals this year to 1.3 million, ASTA said.

Harsh Winter a Boon For Travel Agents

This year’s extraordinarily harsh winter was one for the record books, and for many, best forgotten. Based on anecdotal reports from agents, particularly those with client bases in the Midwest and Northeast, the inclement weather produced another kind of record: unprecedented bookings.

Judy Nidetz of Travel Experts in Chicago said she was inundated with client requests for vacations this winter. “I usually am busy at that time of year anyway but it seemed like the phones were just ringing like crazy,” she said.

“I had a client call me from Chicago saying, ‘Get me out of here,’” said Barbara Fishman, a Travel Experts agent based in Peachtree City, Ga. “All I had to send was the 10-day forecast at the One and Only Palmilla in Cabo San Lucas,” she said, and the client immediately signed on to a weeklong vacation at the resort in early February.

Space, however, was at a premium. Nidetz booked a cruise out of Florida for a Chicago client – but flights were overbooked. “So they actually drove two days to Florida from Chicago,” she said. “That’s how badly people wanted to get away.”

Suffice it to say Nidetz and Fishman were not alone. Victoria Pandolfo, an agent with Altour in Chicago, said the agency got “slammed” this winter, with more clients traveling to farther-flung destinations like Tahiti and Fiji to ensure they really were getting out of the cold.

In addition to South Pacific destinations, agents said they sold a healthy numbers of charter flights to Mexico, including Cancun and the Riviera Maya, Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas.

Alyssa Schulke of Schulke Travel, a Travel Experts affiliate out of Minneapolis/St. Paul, cited Puerto Rico as another popular 2014 winter vacation venue, in part because passports aren’t an issue. “Because of the last-minute nature of some of the travel, a lot of my clients’ passports weren’t up to date,” she said. “Also the flights are relatively convenient and you don’t have to change money.”

[readon1 url="http://www.travelpulse.com/news/travel-agents/travel-2014-the-top-mexico-and-travel-agent-stories-of-the-year.html"]Source:www.travelpulse.com/[/readon1]

Make Sure Travel Insurance Suits You

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Last winter, Eugene Gushuliak was in the kitchen of his Mexican time share when he collapsed and blacked out.

Gushuliak, 73, doesn't remember the events that followed - the ambulance that took him to the Puerto Vallarta hospital, the three specialists enlisted for his care, or the flight that brought him back to Winnipeg.

What he does know is that the three-day hospital stay to treat a heart problem, along with the flight home with his wife, nurse and doctor, added up to $90,000. It was a bill his travel-insurance company took care of completely.

Virginia Gushuliak said she and her husband have been vacationing in Mexico for years and have never taken chances when it came to buying travel insurance.

Alex Bittner, the head of the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada, said while the cost of a policy can put people off, the value should be weighed against the potential of receiving a bill for thousands of dollars.

"I always say, know your trip, know your policy and know your health," said Bittner, who is president of the volunteer-run industry group.

Other tips on buying travel insurance:

Ensure that the policy will cover you for the length of your trip and can be extended for any reason.

Know what medical conditions and emergencies are covered. For example, some policies exclude treatment stemming from high intensity sports, such as hockey.

Check the payout cap. A good travel insurance plan can have a payout of up to $5 million.

Read the fine print on pre-existing health conditions that could result in a rejected claim. Last month, a Saskatoon couple made the news when they were hit with $900,000 medical bill after their baby was born prematurely while on vacation in Hawaii. Even though Jennifer Huculak-Kimmel's doctor had cleared her for travel, Blue Cross rejected the claim.

[readon1 url="http://www.montrealgazette.com/travel/Make+sure+travel+insurance+suits/10457118/story.html"]Source:www.montrealgazette.com[/readon1]

The 2014 TMS Family Travel Summit Spotlights The Riviera Nayarit As Its Guest Of Honor And Will Hold Its 2015 Expo In The Destination

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This company produces conferences where family-friendly destinations meet to do business with travel agents specializing in family vacation packages; their information reaches 45 million people on a monthly basis.
The family market is one of the most important segments for the Riviera Nayarit, which is why the Riviera Nayarit Convention and Visitors Bureau (CVB) participated in the TMS Family Fall Conference 2014 towards the end of November.

This company produces conferences for family destinations and expert travel agents, writers, bloggers and market influencers, and they spotlighted the Riviera Nayarit as their guest of honor this year in Carlsbad, California.

TMS Family Travel also announced that from April 23-25, 2015, they will hold their annual conference in the Riviera Nayarit during an event titled TMS Family Travel Summit 2015, as they consider the destination ideal for family travel.

24 communications media, 24 PR agency representatives and 18 speakers representing airlines, travel agencies, hotels and more were present by during the three days of the November information exchange.

The group has business ties to over 700 thousand hotels around the world through more than 200 reservation sites. They manage 24 languages and serve 45 million visitors per month, fielding an average of two million searches a day.

It’s important to point out that in December 2013, Punta Mita’s beaches were selected among the Top 5 Best Beaches for family surfing trips thanks to their safety, tranquility and beauty. The list was published by one of the top communities specializing in surfing, The Inertia.

The hotel infrastructure in the Riviera Nayarit offers a 100% family-oriented format and there is no doubt these public relations actions will make the region more attractive to family travel.

Puerto Vallarta Sees Record Number of Visitors in 2014

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Puerto Vallarta has had a record amount of tourists visit this year. Additional flights, cruise ships and new hotels helped the resort destination book more rooms in 2014 than in pervious years.

This year will be one of the best years for tourism in Puerto Vallarta on record. The resort destination in Mexico has seen an increase in the number of travelers, new hotels, more flights and more cruise ships, leading to more tourism.

According to Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism (SECTUR), Puerto Vallarta registered an occupancy rate of 64 percent in the first nine months of 2014. Also, the number of guest rooms booked for this year was more than two million, about 70,000 more than in 2006. That year held the previous record for the highest number of rooms booked over the past 10 years.

Different elements contributed to the spike in tourism, including the number of flights to the region. October 2014 saw a rise of about 23 percent more flights than in October 2013. Alaskan Airlines also offered a direct flight this year from Portland to Puerto Vallarta.

Cruise ships visited the Mexican city at a high rate, with 116 ships docking in Puerto Vallarta in 2014. Two new hotels, Hotel One and Holiday Inn Express, opened locations in the resort city this year.

For more information, visit www.visitpuertovallarta.com